As we step into the new year, it is worth pausing for a moment to look back at the year behind us. As in many other fields, 2023 was a turbulent year for security as well. Globally, the year was unquestionably marked by armed conflicts and geopolitical friction on practically every continent, and by threats in the cyber sphere, which remain the leading cause of gray hairs in the business world. In Slovenia and the wider EU, the increasingly pressing issue of migration stands out, while Europe was shaken by shooting rampages at educational institutions and a rise in terrorist incidents.
What awaits us in 2024?
Modern security threats are characterized by their hybrid nature and, above all, by how quickly they adapt to changes in the business environment. It is therefore impossible to predict exactly which threats organizations will be most exposed to in 2024. We can, however, expect several trends from 2023 to continue.
Cybersecurity …
… will in 2024 once again be one of the areas an organization must address to ensure uninterrupted operations and its long-term survival. In 2024, particular attention should be paid to the role of artificial intelligence in cybersecurity – both from the perspective of how cyber threats evolve and from the perspective of how security solutions develop. Artificial intelligence will undoubtedly exert an ever stronger influence on the development and quality of social engineering attacks, and it will also significantly speed up the discovery and exploitation of various security vulnerabilities.
As for the types of cybersecurity threats, many analysts expect the continued growth and evolution of ransomware, the misuse of everyday technological solutions (QR codes and VR accessories, for example), and a rise in cases of “hacktivism”. Particular mention should also be made of the ever-growing threat of disinformation and deliberate deception in every corner of the web.
Terrorism and AMOK situations …
… will in 2024 certainly be a threat that demands more attention than it did in 2023. The rise in global tensions, rooted largely in ideological conflicts, clearly affects the incidence of terrorist threats within the EU. The conflicts in Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon, along with the recent attacks by Houthi rebels on merchant ships in the Red Sea, do not only pose a threat to global trade – they can also have the so-called butterfly effect and result in a major terrorist attack on the territory of the European Union.
In 2024, special attention should therefore be devoted to preparing (or updating) programs for preventing terrorism and other forms of extreme violence. This applies above all to public institutions, healthcare organizations, critical infrastructure, and organizers of public events. Educational institutions deserve particular attention as well. While until now we have followed cases of extreme violence at schools and universities mainly from the distant United States, last year's events in Belgrade and Prague showed that educational institutions in the EU are exposed to AMOK situations too. Although these remain isolated incidents for the time being, events of this kind can often motivate future attackers.
Protecting information and trade secrets …
… is far from a new topic, but we believe it will become increasingly relevant in 2024. Global tensions and the polarization of political blocs affect not only physical and cyber security but economic security as well. Ever since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Union has been striving to reduce its economy's dependence on third countries, which is leading to the centralization of development and production within the EU. Gradually reducing development and production dependence on third countries (above all Asian ones) naturally also means less sharing of sensitive business and development information. At IVSR, we therefore expect an increased number of industrial espionage cases in 2024 – in the cyber sphere as well as the physical one.
The development of security solutions …
… will play an exceptionally important role in 2024 in shaping personal, organizational, and national security. In Slovenia, we are watching the slow modernization of the technical security market, in which automated or even autonomous solutions powered by artificial intelligence will play a major role in the coming years. Development, of course, is not limited to technical solutions but extends to security processes as well. In the vast majority of Slovenian organizations, one can still find outdated security processes that do less to protect the organization against real threats than to give decision-makers a clear conscience – “Of course we take care of security, didn't you see the cameras on the corner?”.
So how can you successfully manage the security environment in 2024?
There is, of course, no universal recipe. We advise all organizations to conduct a comprehensive security risk assessment before implementing security measures, which they can then use as the basis for optimal decisions. Beyond the areas outlined above, 2024 also calls for attention to:
- Ensuring compliance.
- Preventing supply chain risks.
- Establishing business continuity systems.
Let regular monitoring of the security landscape and an analytical approach to security management be your guide to successfully managing security risks. Place special emphasis on preventive measures and on security solutions that will enable you to quickly identify and manage new threats.
